ASX morning briefing: Friday 16 October
Weekday ASX edition · before the 10:00 open · Data cutoff 16 Oct, 07:30 AEDT/AEST
If you read nothing else
- The ASX 200 closed 0.1% lower on Thursday as miners fell and banks rose after weaker jobs data; ASX futures pointed to a rise of about 0.8–1% before the open (AFR).
- Overnight, US investors moved from AI stocks into defensive shares and bonds: the Dow rose 1.1%, the Nasdaq was little changed, and the US 10-year yield fell 9 bp.
- Unemployment rose to 4.7%. Published pricing put the chance of an RBA hike on 3 November at about 17%, while the major banks’ economists are split.
Markets at a glance
Each figure shows its own session. Changes are versus the prior session. Yields in basis points.
S&P/ASX 200
8,719.7
−0.1%
Thu 15 Oct close · Yahoo Finance
delayed, unofficial
S&P 500
7,744.1
+0.3%
Thu 15 Oct close · Yahoo Finance
delayed, unofficial
AUD/USD
0.6955
−0.67%
Thu 15 Oct spot · RBA F11.1
Australia 10Y
5.31%
+3 bp
Wed 14 Oct close · RBA F2 capital market yields
lagged source
Brent (spot)
US$126.55
+0.6%
Wed 14 Oct spot · FRED DCOILBRENTEU
lagged source
VIX
16.46
−0.41 pts
Thu 15 Oct close · FRED VIXCLS
All 16 metrics
What Moved & Why
US investors sold AI stocks and bought defensive shares and bonds The Dow rose 1.1% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was little changed. S&P 500 +0.3% · Nasdaq +0.1% (15 Oct close)
What happened
On Wall Street, investors sold AI stocks and moved into safer shares and bonds. The Dow rose 1.1%, while the Nasdaq barely gained (AP).
Why it matters
If the rotation continues, it would tend to favour ASX banks and industrials over technology stocks. This is a conditional mechanism, not a forecast.
Market reaction
Dashboard closes for 15 Oct: S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.1%, VIX −0.41 points.
Sources
- AP reporting
Strategists differ on whether AI stocks rebound Goldman Sachs expects AI stocks to keep rising overall; JPMorgan does not expect a quick rebound.
What happened
After this week’s sell-off in AI-related stocks, two banks published different outlooks.
Why it matters
The direction of US technology stocks feeds into global risk appetite and into ASX technology names.
Competing views
- Peter Callahan, Goldman Sachs: AI stocks will keep rising overall, but investors now need to pick winners carefully. Goldman Sachs
- JPMorgan: Does not expect a quick rebound from this sell-off like the one in July. MarketWatch
Sources
- Goldman Sachs forecast
- MarketWatch forecast
Australia & ASX
ASX 200 slipped 0.1% as miners fell and banks rallied Banks rose after weak jobs data lowered the odds of an RBA hike; futures pointed higher for Friday. ASX 200 8,719.7, −0.1% (15 Oct close)
What happened
The ASX 200 slipped 0.1% on Thursday. Miners fell, while banks rallied after weak jobs data cut the odds of an RBA rate hike (Investing.com).
Why it matters
Lower rate-hike odds are relevant to bank margins and to rate-sensitive sectors.
Market reaction
Before the open, ASX 200 futures pointed to a rise of about 0.8–1% (AFR). Futures are a separate instrument and do not guarantee the opening level.
Sources
- Investing.com reporting
- AFR reporting
Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.7% The highest unemployment rate in five years lowered market odds of a November RBA hike. Unemployment 4.7% (September)
What happened
Unemployment rose to 4.7%, a five-year high (Reuters via Business Recorder, ABC).
Why it matters
A weaker labour market is one input to the RBA’s decision on 3 November. It does not by itself determine the decision.
What to watch
Australia’s quarterly inflation data later this month, which BetaShares’ David Bassanese calls “all-important” for the November decision.
Sources
- Reuters via Business Recorder reporting
- ABC reporting
Rates & Expectations
Fed: what markets price
Market pricing unavailable
US producer prices jumped, yet the 10-year yield fell sharply September producer prices rose the most since 2022; Treasuries rallied as a safe haven. US 10Y 5.10%, −9 bp (15 Oct)
What happened
US producer prices for September rose the most since 2022. The 10-year Treasury yield had its biggest one-day fall since August as investors bought bonds as a safe haven (CNBC).
Why it matters
Lower long-term yields tend to support rate-sensitive stocks.
What's priced in
Markets still expect at least one more Fed hike this year (CNBC).
Sources
- CNBC reporting
Global Macro & Risk
Oil trackers report different flows through Hormuz TankerTrackers estimates above 12m barrels a day; Kpler estimates nearly 10m. Both are below the pre-war 17m.
What happened
Two vessel-tracking firms published different estimates of October oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz (NYT via DNYUZ). Attacks on ships are at their highest since the war began, and two cargo ships have been sunk (CNN).
Why it matters
Sustained lower flows would constrain delivered oil supply, which is relevant to Brent, inflation and ASX energy and travel stocks.
Different figures: Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz
| Source | Figure | What it measures | When | Method | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TankerTrackers (via NYT) | >12m b/d | October oil flows, slightly up on September | October 2026, reported 15 Oct | Vessel tracking | estimate |
| Kpler (via NYT) | ~10m b/d | October oil flows, down from about 11m | October 2026, reported 15 Oct | Vessel tracking | estimate |
| Pre-war level (via NYT) | 17m b/d | Flows before the war | Before 28 Feb 2026 | Reference level as reported | independently reported |
Unresolved: The two trackers estimate the same route but use their own vessel coverage and methods; the source report does not reconcile them. Both sit well below the pre-war level.
Sources
- NYT via DNYUZ reporting
- CNN reporting
Brent held near US$106 after the IEA sped up stock releases The IEA agreed to release its remaining emergency oil stocks faster; futures barely moved. Brent futures US$105.92, −0.1% (15 Oct)
What happened
The IEA agreed to release its remaining emergency oil stocks faster (IEA). Brent held near US$106.
Why it matters
Higher oil supports ASX energy stocks but adds to inflation and to costs for travel companies.
Different figures: Which Brent price?
| Source | Figure | What it measures | When | Method | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yahoo Finance BZ=F | US$105.92/bbl | Brent front-month futures, daily close | 15 Oct 2026 session | Exchange futures close (delayed, unofficial) | primary measured |
| FRED DCOILBRENTEU (EIA) | US$126.55/bbl | Europe Brent spot assessment | 14 Oct 2026 (latest available at cutoff) | Spot price assessment | primary measured |
Why they differ: Different instruments and dates: the futures price is the front-month contract's daily close; the spot series is an EIA assessment of physical Brent, published with a lag of several days. They are not contradictory.
Sources
- IEA official statement
Your watchlist
-
ZIP Zip Co A$2.120 −4.1%
Thu 15 Oct close · Yahoo Finance (ZIP.AX) · delayed, unofficial
No company news.
Next: How the new Zip Cash product performs in the US over the holiday season.
-
CSL CSL A$186.90 +1.3%
Thu 15 Oct close · Yahoo Finance (CSL.AX) · delayed, unofficial
No new company news this week.
-
FLT Flight Centre A$10.24 +1.2%
Thu 15 Oct close · Yahoo Finance (FLT.AX) · delayed, unofficial
The share buy-back continues. Most brokers rate it a strong buy, with an average target of about $13.75. The company says travel demand will stay subdued while the Middle East conflict lasts.
-
IEL IDP Education A$2.22 +0.9%
Thu 15 Oct close · Yahoo Finance (IEL.AX) · delayed, unofficial
State Street became a substantial shareholder with 5.5%. No new statement from Blackstone since the board rejected its $2.50 a share offer.
What comes next
- Late Oct ▲ High Australia quarterly CPI AU
- End Oct ▲ High Fed policy meeting US
- Tue 3 Nov ▲ High RBA policy decision (Melbourne Cup Day) AU Reuters via Business Recorder