Weekend global briefing: Saturday 17 October
Weekend edition · week in review · Data cutoff 17 Oct, 07:30 AEDT/AEST
If you read nothing else
- Wall Street had its worst week since June. On Friday the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq 2.1%, as oil rose and AI stocks fell.
- The ASX 200 rose 1.0% to 8,806.7 on Friday for a third straight weekly gain, but it closed before the US sell-off.
- Brent futures rose 3.7% to US$109.86 after unconfirmed reports of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. The RBA decides on 3 November, after CPI on 28 October.
Markets at a glance
Each figure shows its own session. Changes are versus the prior session, and the week. Yields in basis points.
S&P/ASX 200
8,806.7
+1.0% +1.0% wk
Fri 16 Oct close · Yahoo Finance
delayed, unofficial
S&P 500
7,659.4
−1.1% −1.9% wk
Fri 16 Oct close · Yahoo Finance
delayed, unofficial
AUD/USD
0.6947
−0.12% −0.5% wk
Fri 16 Oct spot · RBA F11.1
Australia 10Y
5.31%
+3 bp −9 bp wk
Wed 14 Oct close · RBA F2 capital market yields
lagged source
Brent (spot)
US$126.55
+0.6% +0.4% wk
Wed 14 Oct spot · FRED DCOILBRENTEU
lagged source
VIX
19.99
+3.53 pts +5.15 pts wk
Fri 16 Oct close · Yahoo Finance
delayed, unofficial
All 16 metrics
What Moved & Why
Wall Street had its worst week since June Oil rose and AI stocks fell again; the ASX and the Dow held up over the week. Week: S&P 500 −1.9% · Nasdaq −4.5% · ASX 200 +1.0%
What happened
Oil jumped and AI stocks fell again, giving Wall Street its worst week since June (Reuters via Financial Newsletter).
Why it matters
The ASX closed before Friday’s US sell-off, so Monday’s session could open under pressure. This is a conditional observation, not a forecast.
Market reaction
Friday closes (dashboard): S&P 500 −1.1%, Nasdaq −2.1%, VIX +3.53 points to 19.99.
Source: Samso; Reuters
Sources
- Reuters via Financial Newsletter reporting
AI data-centre debt divides investors CoreWeave shares fell about 25% in five days; analysts expect strong US earnings growth this quarter.
What happened
CoreWeave’s shares are down about 25% in five days (Reuters).
Why it matters
Stress in debt-funded AI infrastructure companies could spread to credit and to wider risk appetite.
Competing views
- Bears (as reported by Reuters): AI data-centre companies with large debts may not become profitable in time to repay them. Reuters
- Bulls (as reported by Reuters): Analysts expect US earnings to grow more than 30% this quarter, mostly because of the largest AI companies. Reuters
Sources
- Reuters via Financial Newsletter reporting
Australia & ASX
ASX 200 rose 1% to 8,806.7, a third weekly gain Technology and miners led Friday's rise. ASX 200 8,806.7, +1.0% (16 Oct close)
What happened
The ASX rose 1% on Friday to 8,806.7, led by technology and miners, its third weekly gain in a row (CommBank/AAP).
Why it matters
The ASX closed before Wall Street’s Friday sell-off.
Sources
- CommBank/AAP reporting
Rates & Expectations
Fed: what markets price
Market pricing unavailable
US inflation ran hot; the 10-year yield barely moved Consumer prices rose 3.7% and producer prices 6.3% on a year earlier. US 10Y 5.09%, −1 bp (16 Oct)
What happened
US consumer prices rose 3.7% on a year earlier and producer prices 6.3%. The 10-year yield held at about 5.09% (CNBC). Fed chair Warsh said: “I don’t prejudge meetings.”
Why it matters
Higher inflation keeps the possibility of further Fed hikes in view, which matters for global yields and the AUD.
What's priced in
Traders gave more than an 80% chance that the Fed holds rates this month (CNBC).
Sources
- CNBC reporting
RBA cash rate at 4.60%; next decision 3 November The decision follows the quarterly inflation figures on 28 October. Cash rate target 4.60%
What happened
The cash rate is 4.60% after four hikes this year. The next decision is on 3 November, after the quarterly inflation figures on 28 October (Aussie).
Why it matters
The September-quarter CPI is the main data release before the decision.
What to watch
Quarterly CPI on Wednesday 28 October.
Sources
- Aussie reporting
Global Macro & Risk
Brent futures rose 3.7% to US$109.86 The highest since May, after unconfirmed reports of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. Brent futures US$109.86, +3.7% (16 Oct)
What happened
Brent futures rose 3.7% on Friday to US$109.86, the highest since May. The move followed unconfirmed reports of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure (Reuters via Investing.com). The reports had not been confirmed at the time of publication.
Why it matters
Higher oil supports ASX energy stocks but adds to inflation and to costs for travel stocks.
Different figures: Which Brent price?
| Source | Figure | What it measures | When | Method | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yahoo Finance BZ=F | US$109.86/bbl | Brent front-month futures, daily close | 16 Oct 2026 session | Exchange futures close (delayed, unofficial) | primary measured |
| FRED DCOILBRENTEU (EIA) | US$126.55/bbl | Europe Brent spot assessment | 14 Oct 2026 | Spot price assessment | primary measured |
Why they differ: Different instruments and dates: US$109.86 is the front-month futures close on 16 Oct; US$126.55 is EIA's Europe Brent spot assessment for 14 Oct, the latest published by the cutoff. They are not contradictory.
Competing views
- Energy Aspects: The ongoing risk of escalation will keep prices high. Reuters via Investing.com
- Kpler: Expects a slower, bumpier recovery in Hormuz flows without a political deal. Reuters via Investing.com
Sources
- Reuters via Investing.com reporting
Attacks on ships in Hormuz reached a record 12 in a week Oil flows through the strait are falling again after a partial recovery.
What happened
Attacks on ships reached a record 12 in the week to 11 October, and oil flows through the strait are falling again (BBC Verify). On Friday a tanker with an Indian crew was hit by a projectile in the strait (The National).
Why it matters
Lower flows through Hormuz reduce delivered oil supply, which is relevant to Brent and to inflation.
Source: Kpler via BBC Verify
Sources
- BBC Verify reporting
- The National reporting
Trump ruled out nuclear weapons and ground troops in Iran New US strike plans against Iranian energy and nuclear sites were reported by CNN; unconfirmed by officials.
What happened
Trump said he will not use nuclear weapons or send ground troops into Iran. New US strike plans against Iran’s energy and nuclear sites, which could be used before or after the 3 November midterms, were reported by CNN. On 8 October Trump said he would not restart strikes before the midterms (CNBC).
Why it matters
Strikes on energy sites would be relevant to oil supply and prices.
Sources
- CNBC reporting
Trump announced a deal to lift sanctions on Russian diesel The aim is lower fuel prices before the midterms; traders say the volumes are small.
What happened
Trump announced a deal to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports to lower fuel prices before the midterms. Lawmakers have questioned whether it is legal, and traders say the volumes are too small to lower pump prices much (WSJ).
Why it matters
Diesel supply affects fuel prices and inflation.
Sources
- WSJ reporting
Your watchlist
-
ZIP Zip Co A$2.170 +2.4% +0.5% wk
Fri 16 Oct close · Yahoo Finance (ZIP.AX) · delayed, unofficial
Zip plans to consolidate every five shares into one, with a vote at its AGM on 19 November. Its US CEO, Joe Heck, has resigned.
Next: Quarterly update due Friday 23 October.
-
CSL CSL A$192.20 +2.8% +4.5% wk
Fri 16 Oct close · Yahoo Finance (CSL.AX) · delayed, unofficial
No company news.
-
FLT Flight Centre A$10.46 +2.1% +1.9% wk
Fri 16 Oct close · Yahoo Finance (FLT.AX) · delayed, unofficial
No company news.
-
IEL IDP Education A$2.25 +1.4% +2.3% wk
Fri 16 Oct close · Yahoo Finance (IEL.AX) · delayed, unofficial
No company news.
What comes next
- Mon 19 Oct ▲ High China September-quarter GDP and activity data CN CommSec
- Mon 19 Oct Cleanaway update on EQT's takeover offer, before the open AU Samso
- This week RBA speeches: Kent, Connolly, Hauser AU CommSec
- This week Quarterly updates: BHP, Woodside, Santos, Fortescue AU CommSec
- Wed (US time) Meta and Tesla results US CommSec
- Fri 23 Oct Zip quarterly update AU CommSec
- Wed 28 Oct ▲ High Australia quarterly CPI AU Aussie
- Tue 3 Nov ▲ High RBA policy decision AU Aussie